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Personally i wonder if the upstream power is going out of tolerance temporarily. https://pickmymodem.com/signal-levels-docsis-3-03-1-cable-modem/
I had a problem not long ago where i would occasionally get dropped but it was pretty unpredictable. 2 things helped a lot with my upstream connection though it seemed to do virtually nothing for downstream. 1 was the tech that came out replaced the splitter i had, said the old one didnt support the right frequencies and then i also went out and connected the grounding block from the coax connector on the side of the house to the electrical meter which had a grounding connection on it. I am also later on going to buy a grounding rod, seems that is something my house should have but i can't find any hint of one. Once i did this my upstream dropped from normal of 46-48bd to an average of 36-38.